Houston: The Economy at a Glance is a free monthly publication, 它提供最新的数据以及对休斯顿地区经济的专家评论. Below is an excerpt from the report.
This year, Houston shed 16,700 education jobs. 这些损失被专业和商业服务的增长所抵消,500个工作岗位), 制造业(+ 3,700个工作岗位), 餐厅, 咖啡馆, 杠(+3,000), and finance and insurance (+2,000).
在大流行早期受保持社交距离影响最大的部门现在已经或接近完全恢复. 餐馆和酒吧已经恢复了100%的损失，零售业恢复了90%.e., personal services), 80%.
建筑业继续挣扎，7月份又裁掉了2000个工作岗位. 住宅建设的繁荣并没有抵消工业、办公和零售建筑的放缓. The energy industry continues to restructure, laying off 500 workers in July, and will likely shed more jobs over the next few months. The gains in manufacturing came in fabricated metal products, 大概是因为皇冠HGA010官方下载公司下了新的管道订单, 阀门, 和法兰.
As of July, Houston had recouped 209,400 (57.9 percent) of the 361,400 jobs lost in the pandemic. Employment remains 152,000 below February ’20 levels. 休斯顿的经济复苏落后于全国，全国已经有16家企业被取代.700万(74).5%).300万人失业.
该数据反映了截至7月中旬的就业情况——在Delta变量开始激增之前. 在8月份的报告发布之前，达美航空的影响不会出现在就业数据中, which won’t be until late September. 如果消费者, 出于恐惧, 不要外出就餐, 去酒吧, 参加活动, that will impede Houston’s recovery. The region might backslide a bit, 但不太可能出现像去年3月和4月那样的重大损失. 消费者希望走出家门，与家人和朋友在一起. For some people, it’s a calculated risk. 其他人根本不在乎.
If the economy follows historic patterns, 火箭应该增加40分,000 to 60,000 jobs through the remainder of ’21. That suggests a net gain of 80,000 to 100,今年有1000个工作岗位, which would be one of the better years on record. 这仍将使该地区的就业岗位比大流行前的就业水平低9万至11万个. A full recovery is not likely until early-’23.
休斯顿市区的失业率继续改善，但仍高于德克萨斯州和美国的失业率.S.
The Texas 劳动力 Commission (TWC) estimates there are 240,000 Houstonians who are unemployed and actively looking for work, a dramatic improvement from the 470,000 out of work in April ’20.
然而，这低估了该地区失业的真实水平. Partnership calculations based on TWC data suggests there are 50,000 to 85,与大流行之前相比，今天休斯顿的劳动力减少了1000人. 他们退学的原因有很多:害怕在工作场所感染新冠病毒, lack of day care for their children, generous unemployment benefits, 提前退休, wanting time off to be with family, or needing time off for personal growth. 如果将辍学人数也计算在内，休斯顿的失业率可能会超过9%.0%.
The region’s outlook continues to improve, according to the latest Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). 21年7月PMI为57.2人从56人上升.6月7日. 该指数高于45与休斯顿经济服务业的扩张有关, readings above 50 Houston’s goods producing sectors. 7月是休斯顿PMI连续第12个月高于50.
在过去16个月里，PMI的变动一直追踪着休斯顿对疫情的反应. In April ’20, the PMI fell to 34.6, the lowest reading on record. The index has pointed toward expansion since August ’20, though the strength of the expansion has fluctuated. Despite a recent surge in infection rates, vaccine rollouts have improved the near-term economic outlook. 7月份的PMI是过去24个月以来的第二高.
The spot price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. 光的基准, 低硫原油, has traded above $52 a barrel since the first week of January, the price at which most U.S. 达拉斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)表示，皇冠HGA010官方下载公司钻一口井就能盈利. WTI has traded above $60 since mid-April.
Higher prices haven’t driven a surge in exploration, though. 今年，该行业仅为北美船队增加了157台钻机. 截至8月下旬，美国政府已经开始了一项计划.S. 钻井平台数量比疫情前的水平低285台，比2018年12月的峰值低575台.
Several factors account for the weak rebound. Investors are reluctant to lend to the industry, 迫使公司从内部现金流中为钻井项目提供资金. 在新年开始之前, 许多石油公司签订合同，以每桶50至55美元的价格出售其产品, hedging against potential losses if oil prices collapsed. They haven’t benefitted from the recent run up in prices. 股东们正在向皇冠HGA010官方下载公司施压，要求他们投资非传统皇冠HGA010官方下载企业, limiting their opportunities to expand their drilling programs. 许多公司有大量已钻探但未完工的油井库存, referred to as DUCs in the industry. 他们专注于让这些井上线，而不是钻探新井. Since the first of the year, DUCs的库存已经下降了三分之一，现在接近自2017年中期以来的最低水平.
这对服务公司和设备制造商来说是个好兆头. Exploration firms now need to drill more to maintain production. 随着设备的磨损和企业用更高效、更环保的系统取代旧设备，制造商的订单也在增加.
The 皇冠HGA010官方下载 Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. 平均产量11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in June. 在其8月份的短期皇冠HGA010官方下载展望中，EIA预测产量将达到11%.4 million b/d in December ’21 and 12.22年12月2日. EIA expects WTI to average $68.75 through the end of this year and $62.40岁或明年.
Houston’s construction industry continues to struggle. 道奇数据 & 分析报告称，非住宅项目的新合同减少了33个.8 percent compared to this time last year. 道路、桥梁和水处理厂等非建筑项目的合同增加了26%.但这个基数要小得多，也不足以抵消其他地方的损失.
道奇数据(道奇数据)报告称，年初至今，所有非住宅行业(包括商业建筑)的房价均有所下降, 制造工厂, 学校, 医院, government structures and houses of worship.
来自各大商业经纪公司的报告显示，写字楼建设较去年有所下滑, which was at an already depressed level. 多户住宅建设已经放缓，但仍保持着较高的速度. Same for industrial/warehouse projects. Retail construction has nudged down as well.
商业建筑的低迷始于疫情之前. Employment remains 35,900 jobs below its October ’19 peak. Since then, one in every six jobs in the sector has been lost.
To continue reading, please download the full report.
注:本出版物中所指的地理区域为“休斯顿”,“休斯顿地区”和“休斯顿大都会”是人口普查指定的休斯顿-伍德兰-糖地的九个县都市统计区, TX. The nine counties are: Austin, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.
