The region’s recovery has been uneven, though. 一些部门的就业情况远远超过疫情前的水平. Other sectors are close to full recovery. A few have made little progress.
经济增长保持强劲. At 57.3、休斯敦采购经理人指数(Houston Purchasing Managers Index)显示经济持续扩张. Sales tax collections continue to grow at a double-digit pace. 休斯顿港的集装箱运输量今年将再创新高. Construction activity is well above pre-pandemic levels.
If the current pace of growth holds, 休斯顿可以创造超过100个,今年有1000个工作岗位, well above the Partnership’s original forecast of 75,500. But if growth stalls, and that’s possible if the U.S. slips into recession, job growth will be subpar. Other factors could also slow local job growth: inflation, 利率上升, fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War, a collapse in consumer confidence, and a softening of local housing demand.
休斯顿地铁在21年增加了159,700个工作岗位，是有记录以来最好的一年. 该地区今年的工作岗位比2月20日/疫情前的水平少了15200个. After seasonal job losses in January, hiring surged. 该地区增加了68个,400 jobs February through April, the best start to the year on record, 甚至比12年还好, 13年和14年, the heyday of the fracking boom. 截至4月，非农就业人数为3198,300人，较20年2月增加6,100人.
Half a dozen factors have driven the recovery:
•稳健U型.S. 增长:U.S. 目前的国内生产总值(GDP)(经通货膨胀调整)比大流行前高出5280亿美元.
• Inventory Rebuilding: Wholesalers’ sales were 73.22年3月(可获得的最新数据)比20年4月高出3%.
• Record Exports: Houston firms shipped $140.8 bil¬lion in products overseas last year, up 9.3 per¬cent from the previous record ($128.70亿美元)，设定在1919年.
•崛起为物流中心:自2016年以来，开发商已经增加了超过1亿平方英尺的仓库空间. 休斯顿港在21年比16年多处理了100万个集装箱. 仓储和运输是第一个完全恢复大流行期间失去的所有就业机会的部门.
•人口增长:在2020年7月1日至2021年6月30日期间，近3.2万人搬到了休斯顿. The region ranked fifth in net in-migration over the period.
• Pent-Up Demand: Nationwide, retail sales have surged 47.自20年4月以来的7%(经通胀调整)，这是新冠肺炎引发的经济衰退的最低点.
Some industries have fared better than others. 德克萨斯州劳动力委员会(TWC)跟踪的18个主要行业中，有9个已经恢复了疫情期间失去的所有工作岗位, two have recouped over 90 percent, four just over 50 percent of their losses, and three still struggle to add jobs.
As noted in previous issues of Glance, 皇冠HGA010官方下载, manu-facturing, and construction delayed Houston’s recovery. 缺乏获得资本的途径, pressure to shift investments to low-carbon 皇冠HGA010官方下载 sources, 供应链混乱也扼杀了皇冠HGA010官方下载行业的复苏. Manufacturing won’t recover until upstream 皇冠HGA010官方下载 recovers. 该行业80%以上的失业是在油田设备制造和金属制品制造领域.e., pipes, valves, flanges, and structural steel).
The slow recovery in construction is a puzzle, however. 根据道奇数据 & Analytics, construction actvity
涨了1美元.80亿美元.到今年4月，休斯顿大都会的房价上涨了4%，与2011年同期相比，上涨了2美元.70亿(32亿).2%). 然而就业仍然滞后.
There’s a national shortage of workers across all sectors, but the gap appears to be most acute in construction. “承包商渴望招聘, but the pool of experienced jobseekers barely exists,美国总承包商协会的肯·西蒙森说. In April, there were 449,000 unfiled construction jobs in the U.S.据美国媒体报道.S. 劳工统计局. That’s more than double the 208,00 openings in April ’20.
Dallas/Fort Worth was the first of the major U.S. 以弥补大流行期间失去的所有工作岗位，并在21年7月达到了这一目标. 亚特兰大、凤凰城、里弗赛德和坦帕紧随其后，然后是21年11月的丹佛. Houston joined the club in April ’22. 其他地铁也可能稍后加入, but gains have stagnated for Los Angeles, 明尼阿波里斯市, 纽约, 旧金山和华盛顿, DC.
这些大都市有几个共同特点:生活成本高(见第4页)。, 高税收负担, key industries conducive to remote work, 形象问题, 犯罪率上升, and significant population losses. The latter may be a question of chicken or the egg. 这些城市的就业增长是否因为人口流失而停滞, or have those metros lost population because of weak job growth? The answer is likely a combination of both.
雇主有超过11个.4 million job openings in April. 这比平均6次有所上升.4 million in the five years prior to the pandemic. 全国商业经济协会(National Association for Business Economics) 4月份的一项调查显示，超过三分之一(35%)的受访者预计，他们所在公司的劳动力短缺问题将持续到2013年. Only 11% expect any relief this year. 在四月份的调查中, 全国独立企业联合会(NFIB)发现，其成员中有47%的职位空缺无法填补. 阻碍未来就业增长的可能不是疲软的经济，而是缺乏可用的工人.
In April, Houston’s unemployment rate was 4.1%. 低于5美元.0 percet suggest a tight labor market. 首次申请失业保险的人数已低于大流行前的水平, 因此，很少有休斯顿人被抛回市场，被迫找工作.
In preparing its ’22 employment forecast, 该机构预计，有6个因素将推动当地就业增长.S. 经济, a healthy volume of global trade, 皇冠HGA010官方下载 consumption returning to pre-crisis levels, 被压抑的消费需求, 当地人口增长, 以及持续的房地产繁荣. Those assumptions remain valid.
The Partnership also noted the headwinds: ele¬vated infla¬tion, 供应链困境, 工人短缺. 伙伴关系没有预见到的是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰, the Federal Reserve dramatically increasing interest rates, 中国继续封锁大片经济领域，以遏制冠状病毒的爆发.
而美国.S. 今年不太可能陷入衰退(参见GHP 4月6日的网络研讨会), the nation will experience slower growth, which is what the Fed is trying to achieve. And the recent slip in consumer confidence is worrisome. 但到今年年底，当地的就业增长应该会保持强劲.
Over the past few months, the U.S. Census Bureau has released population estimates for all U.S. cities, counties, and metro areas. 数据显示，在某些方面，休斯敦与全国趋势相反. In others, Houston has followed along.
由9个县组成的休斯顿-伍德兰-苏格兰都市区去年增加了69000名居民. 这与全国的趋势背道而驰. 在全国384个地铁中，只有不到40%的人口增加.
休斯顿市区人口最多的哈里斯县失去了4400名居民. 这是一个全国性的趋势. 在全国3143个县和教区中，近42%的人口减少.
美国第四大人口城市休斯顿市在21年失去了11777名居民. 这是一个全国性的趋势. Of the nation’s 250 most populous cities, 56.0 percent lost population last year. For the nation’s largest cities, 损失惨重, 与纽约, 洛杉矶和芝加哥共有近400人离开,000居民.
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注:本出版物中所指的地理区域为“休斯顿”,“休斯顿地区”和“休斯顿大都会”是人口普查指定的休斯顿-伍德兰-糖地的九个县都市统计区, TX. 这九个县是:奥斯汀, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.
